There has been a recent change in the pattern of questions that I hear from producers. Until now, the discussion centred on production methods, viability, marketing. But a more interesting question is now coming forward: 'Is it popular?' And the comments, even muffled, sound like: 'Organic production seems to be popular these days!'
In discussions with people, I rarely need to define the word, but I still need to explain the pre-requisites to certification. I no longer observe the aggressiveness that once characterised discussions between organic and conventional producers. Most people do not dismiss organic production as silly or impossible; on the contrary, they have legitimate questions about its potential for success.
So ask yourself the question: 'What if it is popular?' And I mean popular as in 25% or more of the market or landmass. What would that mean to you as a producer or consumer?
Can organic agriculture be popular? You bet! For one, organic production was the only method 50 years ago; several people still remember how successful the crops were. Secondly, the only real opposition to organic production is from the agri-chemical companies. They have a lot of sales at stake. But the producer has no vested interest one way or the other. The producer's challenge is to maintain above average performance relative to a market driven price. As the average production increases, the market price goes down, so we are no better off. But if the average production went down, then the market price would climb and we would still be in the same position. Thus, as one large conventional producer said it: 'If we were all organic producers, then we would have a level playing field and be less dependant on the expensive inputs.'
Not a week goes by without seeing organic or ecological agriculture in the mainstream media in one way or another: radio shows about genetic engineering, conferences on the use of hormones and antibiotics, the impact of pesticides on wildlife, etc. Even mainstream agricultural organisations are covering it in their newsletters: labelling food relative to production methods, niche marketing, being open to new ideas. There are a lot of people, the people who buy the food you produce, who are concerned about and increasingly aware of your production methods. This public awareness is going to have an impact on food choices in the same way that public opinion is driving campaigns and legislation against drinking and driving, smoking, pollution.
Food choices in Europe are now being felt in North America. The European refusal of certain transgenic crops is creating significant turmoil in our seed and grain systems and telling farmers what to plant and not to plant. Their refusal of hormones in livestock production may lead to a trade war with the USA. Farming is not immune to customer choices. We must recognise what every businessperson knows: the customer is always right, except when they are wrong, in which case, they are still right.
Europe is also making major decisions in favour of organic food. Most European governments are offering subsidies and significant support for conversion to organic methods. Several have official objectives: 10% to 20% of the farmland converted to organic in the next few years. They are adopting common international standards to define organic production and organic food. Knowing that Europe often leads us by a few years in major trends, how long will it take us to adopt similar policies?
Let's put the debate aside for a moment and ask the question again: 'What if organic food becomes popular?' Forget the probabilities and the merit; just what if? What if the government outlawed a wide range of pesticides? Are you ready? What would you do? What would happen? How would you learn to produce organically? Are you able to participate in this market? Do you have uncontaminated land? How long will you wait to go through transition? Is this the opportunity to learn while the premium is still at 30%-200%? What if it really becomes popular and the price premium disappears?
You still have a few years before it gets really popular among farmers and the price premium disappears. There is still time to benefit from the premium while you are learning organic methods and building your yield. Now is the time to dedicate a few fields to your organic experiment; but give yourself 3 to 5 years to succeed. Only you can prepare your future.
A contribution by Tom Manley
President of Homestead Organics